Saturday 5 July 2014

‘Banking Transaction Tax’ Deserves a Close Look

In the run up to the last Lok Sabha elections- a novel idea was floated by a  Pune based NGO- Arthakranti, for a radical change in our existing tax regime with a new ‘ Banking Transaction Tax (BTT)’ on all payment made by banks to replace all existing taxes such as income tax, excise duty, sales tax and all other taxes collected by both Central, state and local governments.
The idea of BTT is incredibly simple. Banks would collect a small tax (2%) on all payments made by them and deposit the share of different levels of Government- central, State and Local (say 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.35% respectively) in separate accounts.
With the current level of technology- collection of the tax can start immediately with some minor changes in the computer software of banks. The collected tax can be tracked daily and there would be no need for complicated tax returns, thick books of tax compliance rules, huge multi layered tax bureaucracy, complex processes for tax compliance that intimidate tax payers and yet it is estimated that more tax than received now could be collected with much lower administrative cost because people with fear of complex tax compliance rules and procedures would feel free to transact through banks.  
Let us make a back-of-the-envelope calculation with the latest available figures to check Arthakranti’s claim. The total tax collected by central and state government during 2012-13 at Rs.17,51,123.51 Crore (Source: Statistics from Ministry of Finance website) is roughly  1.33% of the total value of payments (including transfers) made by India’s banking system in 2012-13 which was Rs.1,312,47,090 Crore (Source: Statistics from RBI’s website). In other words- a banking transaction tax (BTT) of 1.33% on all bank payments would generate tax revenue equal to revenue collected by current taxes of both central and state governments. Compare this low rate BTT of 1.33% with income tax rates (10 to 30%+cess), excise and sales taxes (up to 50%) that you pay on your purchases and freedom from filing returns. The potential benefits for salaried wage earners that make most of the country’s earning population, are hard to ignore.
Yet Arthakranti’s proposal while received some attention in the press but no serious consideration of government, as could be expected for any new idea. A new idea is unlikely to be accepted immediately.
The idea of the NGO however is hardly new. Exactly the same idea was proposed by an American economist Dr.Edgar Feige, Professor Emeritus of University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA in his October 2000 paper- Taxation for the 21ST Century: the automated payment transaction (APT) tax.
In fact, even prior to Dr. Feige, others well known economists had recommended a similar financial transaction tax to prevent volatile behaviour in financial markets that could land the economy in a financial crisis as we saw in 2008. They include J. M. Keynes (Securities Transaction Tax) and James Tobin (Currency Transaction Tax- also popularly called Tobin Tax). Most G-20 countries had at one time or the other have tried with some form of such taxes though not particularly being successful in terms of tax revenue collection perhaps because the rates have been extremely low. However post 2008- the idea received serious consideration of developed countries and several countries in the developed world are  reintroducing or reorganising such taxes on transactions in their financial markets to prevent any likely future crises.
While Dr. Feige has drawn the idea of transaction tax from Keynes and Tobin but his focus is not particularly financial markets- but introducing a low ‘Automatic Transaction Tax’ (APT) as an alternative to all existing taxes and to cover the entire economy including the parts left out by current tax regime and thereby collect as much tax revenue or even more. The foundations of APT according to Feige, ”involve  simplification, base broadening, reductions in marginal tax rates, the elimination of tax and information returns and the automatic assessment and collection of tax revenues at payment source.”

According to an estimate referred to by Arthakranti- 67% of India’s economy is cash economy that pays no tax. A simplified and low rate BTT regime is expected bring them under tax net by eliminating the need for complex compliance procedures.

BTT will make many winners and some losers. Winners will be salaried wage earners. Losers will be financial institutions and those engaged in high volume of transaction of financial assets- stocks, shares and those properties that are currently not taxed or minimally taxed. Naturally- the potential losers are expected to oppose such a tax tooth and nail.

The idea of ‘Transaction Tax’ and its experience in some South American countries have been examined in several organisations including World Bank, IMF etc. Arguments against BTT point to several weaknesses of the tax. One is that BTT will encourage cash economy. BTT supporters say- it is high rate of taxation and complex compliance procedure that encourage cash transaction. BTT would rather encourage cash economy to move to  the mainstream with its simplified tax regime and extremely low rate.

Cascading of taxes is another suspicion. For example- take a loaf of bread. There are several steps from growing of wheat to the final product- the bread. In the entire process- many transactions will take place and each will be taxed under BTT leading to piling up of all taxes in final product and thereby making it terribly expensive. True, say BTT lovers, but the tax rate is so small that cascading will not make it more expensive than now. Besides- current taxes treats different product differently. You pay up to 50% taxes (in case of petroleum products). By paying a uniformly low rate on every transaction, on the average you are much better off, they contend.

The secret of BTT’s high revenue is much larger tax base than of the existing taxes and therefore despite low rates it is expected to collect same revenue as by current taxes or even more.

Another weakness that was actually observed in Latin America was multiple endorsement of cheques to reduce bank transaction and avoid paying BTT. This however can be corrected by treating each endorsement as a transaction for tax purposes, say BTT supporters. Dr. Feige also foresees that there may be attempts to create private digital monetary systems to evade BTT and he feels such situations could dealt with legal provisions.

The argument of financial business community against BTT would be that such a tax would discourage trading activities and restricting their ability to generate capital for investment. For example, a trader of stocks would not be willing to sell his shares/ stocks if his profit after paying BTT is zero or negative (a loss). It may however be boon to the economy in general that BTT will discourage high volume trading of volatile nature triggered by a variation by a tiny fraction in prices. This is why since last financial crisis, several countries are now favourably disposed towards taxing financial transactions.

In any case, considering the benefits to most people in the country who are wage earners- BTT deserves a relook. Will Finance Minister do it?

Monday 16 June 2014

Home- Right Here and Now


Thirty years ago, then as a recently arrived outsider in Delhi, I did a chore almost every week and sometimes more than once a week. Unlike all other chores that I was required to do, this was despite being a difficult one, was something that I really loved and eagerly looked forward to even though it meant getting up from bed at four in the morning, dressing up and taking the first bus to Old Delhi Railway station to receive someone coming from Assam. I would wait at the bus stop with just a roof  in the biting cold of January but  felt warm with the expectation of meeting someone from Assam- my home.

I did not have a phone and did not want to wake up my land lord to use his phone at such unearthly hours (I used his phone to receive calls and occasionally to make a call ) and therefore more often than not I would learn on arrival at the station that the train is delayed. Delays of Indian Railways trains particularly those coming from Assam were legion those days. I had no option but wait because commuting home and back again in an hour or two was meaningless. So what I would do? Buy myself a cup of coffee, later call my boss that I would be late for work. I ignored if his tone was not approving because I could not stop coming to receive my guests and knew that given the circumstances it was bound to happen again.

When my guests- usually a student applying for a college here or my relatives on on visit on government leave travel allowance, alight from the train, I would be overjoyed with fulfillment of the purpose of my efforts.  I would take the guests home to my one room residence or find a suitable hotel if my place was not right (if it was a lady or elderly relative or just more than one).  I was happy if it was someone I could bring home to stay with me because I could have more time to talk about things back home. As long as they stayed in Delhi I would be their guide after my work and on weekends for the entire waking hours. News would be extracted every moment when we would be together on everything from political scene, music, movies and personal news of every person we both knew. I would regale them with strange ways of the city that I have despite my not liking it, made my new home, things that my colleagues at work would hardly find interesting. Only an Assamese would understand our daily struggle on the city street with Delhi Hindi or Hindustani where every word was male or female and verbs, adjectives , possessive nouns- all changing by the gender of the subject of the sentence.  With internet, Satellite TV, it is not so strange anymore but back then we were horrified that in Hindi a lot of macho stuff  are like bus, government, police are actually feminine.

My visitors brought me a heart warming respite from the loneliness in what was then for me a friendless city. Contact with home was through letters that took more than a week either way. Long distance calls would cost a fortune and therefore ruled out. Frequent trips were just not affordable.
 
My guests wholeheartedly welcomed my attention that was a huge support for them in a big strange city. Most of them had come with very limited resources and were grateful for my finding an inexpensive place to stay and eat or my offer to accommodate them in my one room residence,  for giving them company in shopping, sightseeing and everywhere.  Finally, when I saw them off at the station how sad I was to miss them.

Other than this mobile society from home- the other option I made full use of was socializing with about 100 odd families from home  who were too widely scattered over the city to be in touch regularly but always met to celebrate Magh Bihu, Bohag Bihu, Sankardev Tithi, Id Milan- those then very close and informal gatherings organized by Assam Association.

  As time passed, I grew in my career and got more and more immersed in work. I married and raised a family. I found a few people whose company I enjoyed and we became close friends. Gradually though, I realised I had long stopped keeping track of who was coming from Assam. Actually many more people started coming from Assam and going back to come again on business, leisure or studies. More and more people came from everywhere in Assam to the city to work and settled down but I had very little to do with anyone of them except for those in my immediate family. I was gradually cut off from news from home (unless it was something big to be covered in national press), music and movies, personal tit bits about friends and relatives outside our immediate family. Being occupied with family  and work, trips home were short and less frequent. It was as if a dark curtain enveloped over whatever I yearned for as home.
The blackout stayed for years. When not occupied I was depressed and asked myself- what worth was this life being so far away from home?  I shared my feelings in the passing with a colleague. He smiled and said in a mock conspiratorial tone, “You know, you are successful and you have prospered. If you get something, you lose something else.” He was thoughtful for a moment. “I’ll tell you something, social bonds are actually inversely proportional to prosperity.”  Hah, mathematical logic of my miserable feelings from a Maths honours graduate. He went on to explain. “It’s a trade off. If prosperity goes up, you are busier than before and you don’t get time to socialise. So, social bonds are not as strong unlike when you are a student or unemployed.” He said after having changed his tone to ‘matter-of-factly’ mode. You find many ‘matter-of-factly’ people like him in cities and cities seem to love them.

That was over two decades ago. Everything changed beyond recognition today. From about 100 odd families (mostly government employees) I am told the city today accommodates about 30,000 families from my home state and more if you count  all the suburbs. I do not know most of them and can’t have time for all of them. They are in all kind of professions you can imagine. Many of them own houses in the city, many drive high end cars. In contrast, most of us 30 years ago did not have a car and lived in rented accommodation without much hope of ever owning a house here. There was no room for doubt that after retirement we were to go back home.

I retired recently and have not gone home. But home gradually came to me here. Not just that I bought my apartment in the city. Assamese TV channels with news, soaps, talk shows, movies are all here received via satellite. All newspapers I did not get are online now. Airfares crashed with open sky policy. Three decades ago a return trip to Guwahati would cost me more than a month’s salary. When I retired it was less than one tenth or even less if you looked around online. From no telephone at home, we now have four mobile phones in addition to a fixed line and broad band. Daily long distance calls from each of these phones are now routine. I lived in New York for 3 years and returned  only five years ago and strangely though several thousand miles away while being there, I never felt like I did at Delhi 30 years ago.

I now rarely go to Railway station or airport anymore to receive someone. Visitors from home are substantially more informed and can easily find their way around with online help, google map and many more. They visit me sometimes but not for any support from me in the big strange city that is not strange anymore (as is not any other place in the world) but to have some good time together. There is nothing much ‘new’ that we could tell one another. Even without one to one contact in person, through phone or e mail- FaceBook keeps me informed about all- in words, pictures and video- who is doing what, what’s one eating, where is one going, who is one getting engaged to and marrying, babies delivered and more.
My cousin called me from Assam. He was sorry he could not find time to see me when he was here a few days ago. I smiled and understood- both of us are smug that we are in touch and didn’t feel like we are missing one another. I wondered how it would have played out 30 years ago.

It took me 30 years but I have got back my home. Right here in the big strange city that is strange no more.

Sunday 15 June 2014

The ‘50 Million’ Rule – An Urgent Need after Telengana


The creation of the new state of Telengana has lent a louder voice to demands for new states in several parts of the country.  However, after the bitter acrimony and heightened emotional reactions both in favour and against the creation of the new state that divided party loyalties and made or marred political fortunes of many in the last elections - no politician may like to touch the subject of creation of a new state. Yet- ignoring these demands is likely to leave the people more aggrieved with the impression that people of Telengana were favoured with one set of rules but others are now denied with another.
The fact however is that after the reorganisation of States on linguistic basis after independence, there have been no other rules for creation of a new State nor there is any complex constitutional process to create a new State (approval of simple majority in the Parliament is all required) .
In the context of Telengana, many have even questioned the validity of  language as a basis for reorganisation of states after independence. If the criterion of language was right- how could the same Telegu speaking people of  Telengana want a separation from Andhra?  Was the centrality of language in reorganisation of states was a bad idea? Or could there have been another basis for reorganisation of States?
To look into the question, let us start with the demand for new states. A list of States where demands for new states were voiced show that in 17 out of 36 States and Union Territories, there have been demands for new states (list below). It also means that people in the other 19 states and Union Territories (more than 50% of States) are happy with their linguistic identity or at least have no problem with it.
In almost all small States the demands for new States are based on separate linguistic or cultural identity  (the cultural differences are mainly due to speaking a different language).  Garos in Meghalaya want Garoland, Bodos, Dimasas and Karbis  in Assam want Bodoland, Dimaraji and Kabi Anglong respectively. Gorkhas in West Bengal want Gorkhaland and Ladakhis want Ladakh State.  Each of these groups is a distinct linguistic group in their respective states. Whether such relatively small groups could qualify for new States is a matter of Economic viability but they certainly prove the point that mother tongue is a very strong identity, particularly where there is a concentration of people speaking the same tongue and therefore, is the strongest argument for reorganisation of  States and that our founding fathers were not wrong.
Both the facts above perhaps remove any doubt about validity of language as basis of States. But what about the demand for new States where language is no issue like Telengana?
Look at the list and the answer is clear- in those States where language is not an issue, demand for new States arises in most populous States- UP, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat. Most significantly- the threshold for such demands seems to gain strength at the point when population in a State crosses the 50 million mark.
Therefore while in small States – new States are demanded to protect linguistic identities- the reason in big States is distant and unreachable Administration although the agitators may find excuses in very minor differences in language, or caste etc. to push their demand. Proof that people suffer because the Administration cannot have an effective control in such big states, is not difficult to find. One look at the most unruly state of the country UP, irrespective of the party governing it and it would tell the story.
 In case of West Bengal, however- demand for Gorkhaland is on double count- both by the criteria of language and population.
In the ultimate analysis however- it is the distance between the people and state administration, whether due to speaking different languages or geographical distance and pressure of far too many people that motivates people to demand new State so that they can have an administration closer to them. Both types of distances are difficult to negotiate but language and cultural differences are easier to reduce with a sensitive approach and policies by the administration. The other type of distance cannot be bridged by policies. There may not be any other option than breaking them up into smaller states.
The demand for new states are therefore best dealt by a two pronged approach- ensure sensitive policies and administration to marginalised and aggrieved linguistic groups on one hand and firmly follow the population threshold of 50 million to create new states.
By the ‘50 million’ rule ,  four most populous states are long due for division into smaller states.
UP is an ideal candidate for conversion into 4 or 5 new States, Maharashtra, Bihar and West Bengal into two each. Similarly- making future plans for similar exercise in the next decade for Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Gujarat will save government a lot of troubles in future.
Sate
Language(s)
Population (Crore)
Demand for New States
If  Language and Culture Main Reason for Demand
Uttar Pradesh
Hindi
19.9
Harit Pradesh/Paschim Pradesh, Awadh, Purvanchal/ Bhojpur*, Bundelkhand**
No
Maharastra
Marathi, Konkani
11.2
Vidarbha
No
Bihar
Hindi
10.3
Purvanchal/ Bhojpur*,  Mithilanchal 
No
West Bengal
Bengali, Nepali
9.13
Gorkhaland,
Kamatapur***
Yes
No
Andhra Pradesh  (+ Telengana)
Telegu
8.46
Telangana, Rayalseema, Coastal Andhra
No
Madhya Pradesh
Hindi
7.25
Vindhya Pradesh, Bundelkhand**
No
Tamil Nadu
Tamil
7.21
No
Rajasthan
Hindi
6.86
Maru Pradesh
No
Karnataka
Kannada, Tulu
6.11
North Karnataka, Coorg,
Tulu Nadu#
No
Yes
Gujarat
Gujrati
6.03
Saurashtra
No
Orissa
Oriya, Tribal languages
4.19
Tribal state of Koshal
Yes
Kerala
Malayalam,Tulu
3.38
Tulu Nadu#
Yes
Jammu & Kashmir
Kashmiri, Dogri, Ladakhi
1.25
Ladakh, Jammu/Dogradesh
Yes

Assam
Assamese, Bengali, Bodo and  tribal dialects
3.11
Bodoland, Kamatapur***. Karbi Anglong, Dimasa State
Yes
Yes
Meghalaya
Khasi, Garo and Jayantiya
0.29
Garoland
Yes
Manipur
Manipuri, Naga dialects
0.27
Kukiland
Yes
Nagaland
Several Naga dialects
0.19
Frontier Nagaland
Yes

* Bihar and UP;      **UP and MP      ;***West Bangal and Assam;         #Karnataka and Kerala